Monday News: "Looking Ugly"

The xenophobic violence in South Africa dominates my Google Reader this morning. Foreign refugees and workers are either fleeing the country or setting up makeshift camps--and are not only rejecting public apologies, but are vowing to fight back if attacked again. Local, provincial, and national governments are grappling with the best way to deal with both the displacement and imperative the end the violence and ensure long-term peace. President Thabo Mbeki, who remained silent on the growing crisis for nearly two weeks, called the violence an “absolute disgrace” in a speech marking yesterday’s Africa Day commemoration.

Newspaper editorials from around the African continent provide compelling critiques of the violence: The Monitor, a newspaper in Uganda, writes, “South Africa is looking ugly again,” and blames the ANC for creating unrealistically high expectations for change under democracy and majority rule. (Perhaps a new indicator for democratic consolidation should be the degree of skepticism citizens have towards politicians’ campaign promises.) While the editorial notes that the ANC government has made strides in post-apartheid economic growth, it also warns that, due to the massive scale of poverty, special attention should be paid to the urban poor in order to ward off disgruntlement-turned-violence.

The East African, out of Kenya, seems betrayed at South Africans’ rejection of their continental brothers and of the ideals of their own Rainbow Nation. The editors write, “The black South African is generally a bitter person, emotionally scarred by the brutal apartheid system. It could indeed take a generation or more for South Africans to recover from the after-effects of apartheid. But attacking fellow black Africans will not bring about quick healing; instead, it will alienate the Rainbow Nation from neighbouring countries to which it owes so much in the fight against apartheid.”

In Zimbabwe, our good friend Bobby Mugabe told a ZANU-PF rally that Zimbabwe will “never be a colony again,” invoking the same rhetoric he uses every time his rule is under attack. (Seriously, if you read his speeches from throughout his career, you’ll find new meaning in the phrase ‘broken record.’) The implication is that the MDC is back by Western interests, and a MDC electoral victory would amount to the reinstallation of colonialism. Mugabe also promised land to Zimbabweans living in South Africa if they return…and I’m wondering, after decades of his land ‘policies,’ if there’s really anyone left to steal it form?

Violence continues to two fronts in Sudan, with fears of renewed civil war between the North and the South, and government retaliation against Darfur for the rebel attack on Khartoum.

Uganda set up a special war crimes court with a mandate to try the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army for atrocities committed during its 20 year insurgency. LRA leader Joseph Kony has repeatedly demanded the withdrawal of an International Criminal Court indictment before he will sign a peace accord.

Slow progress, but progress nonetheless, continues in Burma, as representatives of 50 nations met in Rangoon to discuss international access and aid to cyclone victims.

Need something slightly more positive? Check out this UNICEF article on efforts to help Chadian refugee children living in camps in Cameroon.

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday...

More election trouble is brewing, this time in Angola: Human Rights Watch issued a press release calling the country’s closure of the field office of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) an ominous sign of “growing government intolerance of human rights scrutiny and other criticism in the run-up to September’s elections.” The Angolan government claims the office is no longer necessary due to the consolidation of peace and democratization, but HRW observers beg to differ.

Former vice president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Jean Pierre Bemba was arrested in Belgium on a war crimes indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Bemba’s militia was called on by the president of the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2002 and 2003 to counter a rebellion. Bemba’s counterinsurgent strategy? Rape, torture, degradation, and looting of civilians and insurgents alike. Bemba nearly won the presidency of the DRC in 2006, but was defeated in a run-off.

A Somali news source reports attacks by Islamist insurgents against government troops in Mogadishu, as well as against suspected pirates in the coastal town of Hobyo. The waters off the coast of Somalia are notorious for pirates, despite a US naval presence, due to the 17-year lack of functioning central government.

Sudanese refugees in Uganda are resisting repatriationby the UN High Commission for Refugees following the collapse of peace talks between the Ugandan government and the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). The refugees fear renewed attacks by the LRA, which is currently across the border in the DRC, would force them to flee once again. The LRA is infamous for attacking, looting, and burning civilian villages throughout the region, as well as abducting women and children to become soldiers or sex slaves.

The Nation, a Kenyan publication, takes a harsh stance against the xenophobic mob violence in South Africa, accusing the government--as well as others on the continent--of fueling the violence through lack of decisive action. Citing a Swahili proverb that warns “if you fail to seal a crack, you will certainly have to rebuild the wall,” the editorial says that the South African government ignored signs that xenophobia was becoming a serious problem. South African news sources continue to assess the damage of the nationwide attacks, both material and human, even going as far as calling it “ethnic cleansing.”

MDC and ZANU-PF run-off campaigns are underway in Zimbabwe. Mugabe threatened to expel the US ambassador for “meddling” in the country’s internal affairs--he must’ve borrowed a Chinese political rhetoric book--telling supporters at a rally, "I am just waiting to see if he makes one more step wrong. He will get out." As discussed by MF in a previous post, Ambassador James McGee has braved police obstruction and intimidation to gather evidence of government-sponsored violence against civilians.

As the military government in Burma slowly acquiesces to international assistance to cyclone victims, aid workers are pressuring the junta for full access to the devastated region. While allowing international aid workers into the country, the government continues to deny American and French naval ships stocked with supplies to dock and unload.

And finally: A Washington Post article on the impact of the food shortage on UN peacekeeping efforts.

Saturday News: I love anything that uses the phrase "political gobbledygook."

Zimbabwe: Morgan Tsvangirai returned to Zimbabwe today to campaign for the June 27 runoff election. In a press conference shortly after his arrival in Harare, Tsvangirai accused Mugabe and ZANU-PF of trying to “decimate” the MDC, but said that he is confident of victory despite the absence of a free and fair electoral process. He also called on the SADC to deploy peacekeeping forces by June 1, to quell pre-election violence and intimidation by the Mugabe’s self-described “warlike” campaign strategy. Regional activists will commemorate tomorrow’s Africa Day--which marks the founding of the Organization of African Unity, now the African Union--with a “Stand Up for Zimbabwe” campaign.

ZA: Xenophobic violence has resulted in the displacement of 10,000 foreigners in Cape Town, with the continuation of the attacks prompting extensive finger-pointing and fueling debates on South Africa’s political and economic dilemmas. (Scroll down about half way for the discussion of “political gobbledygook.”) The New York Times editorial board took a harsh stance towards President Thabo Mbeki, for the current crisis as well as many other presidential insufficiencies and missteps, and postures that likely-presidential candidate Jacob Zuma will not provide the “enlightened leadership” the country and the continent desperately need.

Sudan: The head of the UN mission in Sudan said the town of Abyei is “totally devastated” following clashes between the Sudanese military and the SPLM. (See previous posts for background.) In Khartoum, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir presided over a ceremony proclaiming victory after last week’s attack by Darfur rebel group JEM. In a particularly gruesome attempt to save face after the surprise attack, “he strolled past a 200-yard-long photo gallery, a grotesque display of burned and dismembered bodies, allegedly those of the rebels. Each image was underlined with the same caption in Arabic: ‘summary of failure.’” (See previous posts for background on the attack.)

Haven’t had enough? Violence is on the rise (from an already-substantial level) in the Central African Republic, and the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia continues to deteriorate.

End-Of-The-Week Highlights

Zimbabwe: Vice-President Joice Mujuru and her husband are said to have objected to the use of violence to intimidate voters before the runoff election next month. The Zimbabwe Independent reports that the objections were raised to Mugabe in a ZANU-PF politburo meeting on Wednesday. Though difficult to verify, if the Mujurus did in fact express discontent over their party’s incendiary campaign tactics, it gives credence to other reports of divisions among the ranks of the ZANU-PF--a serious threat to Mugabe’s power.

The Institute for War and Peace Reporting writes that the central committee of the ZANU-PF recently replaced the director of the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC) to ensure that the media stays “on message.” Daily soap operas and other programs have been replaced by documentaries and news coverage glorifying Mugabe.

Former Bishop of Harare Nolbert Kunonga was excommunicated from the Anglican Church, along with several allied priests, for continued support of Mugabe’s violent and oppressive tactics against the wishes of the Church.

MDC presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai is set to return to Zimbabwe this weekend. Tsvangirai left the country in early April due to threats to his life, and a previous attempt to return was thwarted by an assassination plot. Tsvangirai has been subject to numerous beatings and detentions at the hands of Zimbabwean security forces throughout his public career.

ZA: Xenophobic attacks in South Africa are spreading at an alarming rate, resulting in a mass exodus of foreigners fleeing the violent mobs. The Western Cape province is readying a defense force to quell the attacks, which seems like a much more reasonable response than asking citizens to combat the mobs themselves. That has to be in the top ten Common Sense Rules to Good Governance: The answer to vigilantism is not vigilantism. In some places, that’s called street warfare.

Darfur: Armed men on horseback ambused a UN peacekeeping force from Nigeria, attacking the troops with AK-47’s and rocket-propelled grenades and stealing their weapons.

Wednesday News Update

South Africa: Johannesburg-based Business Day writes that the tone of the xenophobic attacks on foreign migrants and refugees is increasingly one of ethnic conflict, as attackers issue a “nationality test” to potential victims.

Zimbabwe: In a new report, the International Crisis Group warns that violence in Zimbabwe is likely to escalate, perhaps even as far as a military coup to prevent opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai from assuming the presidency.

Sudan: Heavy fighting between the Sudanese military and the southern Sudan People’s Liberation Movement continued Tuesday in the Abyei region, resulting in at least 21 deaths and over 100 injuries.

Burma: A New York Times editorial today calls for the US and France to begin airdropping aid to the victims of Cyclone Nargis if the ruling military junta does not grant entry to international relief workers soon. “No one wants a confrontation,” writes NYT, “but the world cannot sit by while tens of thousands more people die.” The issue of relief delivery against the wishes of the government continues to spark heated debate in the international community regarding the principles of the “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine (R2P).

Kenya: Eleven women accused of witchcraft were burned alive by a vigilante mob. A local official condemned the attack, saying, "People must not take the law into their own hands simply because they suspect someone." Such incidents relate to larger problems of gender violence and discrimination…perhaps to be discussed in another post.

Global Peace Index: Check out fellow blogger Actus Rei’s assessment of the 2008 Global Peace Index.

News for the Glasses-Half-Empty

Zimbabwe: "The threats of xenophobic attacks pose less danger than the threats of persistent hunger, political violence and shortages of just about everything” in Zimbabwe, says a mother of moving her family to South Africa.

Sudan: “One of the great foreign policy risks right now,” writes Nicholas Kristof, “is that Sudan’s north-south war will start up again.” Fighting erupted in the oil-rich Abyei region, called “Sudan’s Kashmir” by the Enough Project due to its unresolved and disputed status, forcing up to 50,000 people to flee and threatening the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended over 20 years of civil war. In addition, Save Darfur continues to document reprisals by the Sudanese government against Darfuri civilians following the JEM attack on Khartoum. (See previous posts for background.) Kristof writes, “My fear is that the Darfur conflict will be remembered just as the prologue to an even bloodier war that engulfs all of Sudan.” Sobering.

Burma (Myanmar): The government said today that the country faces a severe food shortage if the rice crops destroyed by a hurricane are not replanted within 3 weeks. Maybe you should’ve thought about that before you denied both international and domestic aid to the region. Idiots.

News: What is it about Mondays?

Somalia: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that over 2.6 million—35% of the country’s population—face near-famine conditions caused by the rapid increase in food prices and a regional drought. Compounding the situation, Somalia now has over 1 million internally-displaced persons (IDPs) due to the ongoing conflict between the transitional government and insurgents.
Zimbabwe: US Ambassador James McGee defied multiple police attempts to prevent his convoy from investigating post-election violence in Zimbabwe. McGee’s convoy was stopped repeatedly by police, who threatened the ambassador and other diplomats with physical violence and detainment. The MDC accused the military of plotting to assassinate its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, alleging that 18 snipers are poised to pursue a hit list of 40 prominent MDC leaders. Tsvangirai left Zimbabwe in April due to assassination threats, and canceled his return to the country this weekend, when he planned to begin his campaign for the upcoming runoff election.
Sri Lanka: Clashes between the Tamil Tigers and the military left 78 dead this weekend, as the government continues its drive to “crush” the insurgency by the end of the year. The Tamil Tigers have fought for an independent state for their marginalized ethnic group since 1983, and atrocities committed by both sides resulting in a total of 70,000 deaths. Today, three Nobel Peace Laureates called on the UN to reject Sri Lanka’s application for membership for the UN Human Rights Council. Desmond Tutu, Jimmy Carter, and Adolfo Perez Esquivel oppose the candidacy due to Sri Lanka’s poor human rights record.
South Africa: Xenophobic violence is nothing new to South Africa, but the problem is rapidly worsening. Attacks on foreigners and refugees presents quite a dilemma for the still-new post-apartheid democracy, as people grow frustrated with their poor quality of life and resentful of foreigners perceived as competing for jobs and resources.
Burma: The government agreed to allow Southeast Asian aid workers into areas affected by Cyclone Nargis, but will continue to restrict those from the rest of the international community. In this video, Guardian reporter Helen Pidd describes the difficulties and risks of undercover journalism in the country.

Information is Power...or, The Power of Information (Musings on the Sunday NYT)

A theme emerged from the Sunday New York Times coverage of the natural disasters in China and Burma: access (or lack thereof) to information, and its relation to power. Namely, the articles illustrate how issues of information can turn a natural disaster into a political threat to regimes bent on control and restriction.

First, Burma. (Officially Myanmar, but like many, I refer to the country as Burma because I do not recognize the legitimacy of the military dictatorship that changed the name in 1989.) The military junta continues to deny access to areas devastated by Cyclone Nargis. Two weeks after the cyclone, the United Nations estimates that only 20% of the survivors have received even basic assistance. All foreigners are banned from the hard-hit Irrawaddy Delta, and even aid convoys arranged by domestic groups have been turned back at military checkpoints. As British Prime Minister Gordon Brown aptly said, the natural disaster of the cyclone “is being made into a man-made catastrophe” by the government’s refusal to render aid to its own people. The French ambassador warned that the junta’s actions could turn the humanitarian crisis in a “true crime against humanity.”

China is responding rapidly to the massive 7.9 earthquake that hit the Sichuan Province on Monday—the interesting factor here, as the New York Times discusses, is how China controls media coverage of natural disasters to the wider public, and how its attempts to control public information are starting to erode. The Central Propaganda Department forbade journalists from entering the areas affected by the earthquake, as it has done with other disasters in the past, but several journalists ignored the order, and their newspaper took great risks by printing their dispatches. Though most editors obey the orders from the Central Propaganda Department—which issues all mandates through a verbal network, and has no public address or phone number, which seems like something out of a movie about the Cold War—and the New York Times notes that those that are reporting on the earthquake stay away from politically sensitive topics, such actions by rogue journalists represent a crack in the government’s intense effort to control public information.

As the Times “Week In Review” columnist Philip Taubman writes, “A dash of openness can be a dangerous thing for an autocratic state.” Think about it—all of the best dictatorships make a concerted effort to control the media, with official media outlets promoting official news, views, and propaganda. While attempting to control domestic coverage of the earthquake, the Chinese government as allowed international press to report more freely—China tightly controls internet and other access to foreign media sources, but as Taubman notes in a comparison to Russia, small steps toward open access can set into motion “unsettling” political forces. The government of Burma is bent on restricting any access at whatever cost, but the “Public Editor” writes, in an explanation of the frequent use of anonymous sources in Burma and Zimbabwe, that international and local reporters go to extreme lengths to sneak into and report on the disaster zone.

The moral of the story? Repressive regimes make valiant efforts to control access to information because their power depends on it, but that control can never be airtight. And therein lies their (potential, hopeful, eventual) demise. Natural disasters have political consequences in any state—hello, Katrina—but their potential to disrupt the controlling practices of autocratic regimes like Burma and China is particularly significant. China and Burma’s different responses to their respective disasters could yield similar political results—China’s relative openness could start the “crack” of open information, and Burma’s adamant denial of access currently serves to highlight the human rights abuses of the regime and increase international pressure for reform.

And even in the most repressive states, there are always people willing to risk their lives to access and spread information.

And if you’re wondering what’s going on in Zimbabwe: Violence continues (I know you’re shocked), and Morgan Tsvangirai canceled plans to return to Zimbabwe to campaign for the June 27 run-off due to assassination plots.

Thursday/SuperEarlyFriday News: The word-of-the-day is "escalate."

Sudan: The UN says the conflict in Darfur, Sudan “threatens to enter” a “new cycle of violence”—MF thinks it’s already there. In addition to the escalating violence following the Darfuri rebel group attack on Khartoum, tensions related to the North/South civil war erupted in violence in the disputed Abyei region, with ‘former’ Southern rebels exchanging gun and mortar fire with northern government forces. The UN withdrew all non-essential personnel from the region as a result of the violence, and warned that the renewed violence jeopardizes the 2005 peace agreement that ended decades of war. For more background on Darfur and the North/South conflict—can it get any more complicated—clickity click here

Zimbabwe: As the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) continues to delay a speculative date for a presidential runoff—July, maybe? No, August, I think—the violence against opposition supporters continues to escalate. Mugabe’s Public Enemy No. 1 this week? Anglicans. The US sent a letter of protest after a confrontation between the US ambassador and Zimbabwe police. (I’m sure Mugabe is shaking in his boots.)

But look, Bobby M., you do win a prize for all of your hard work dictator-ing: World’s Highest Inflation! I think tomorrow I’ll go to a currency exchange, lay down $2, and ask for a Zimbabwean $500 million note.

In other news…
...The Guardian’s page on the Democratic Republic of Congo, if you need some light reading.
...The violence and trauma of rape continues its physical degradation for women in Liberia.
...Inside a Palestinian refugee camp, courtesy of BBC.
...Stalemate in Uganda. An interesting note here: Uganda’s peace talks are set in Juba, South Sudan…Uganda received thousands of refugees from Sudan’s North/South civil war…conflict-ridden countries holding each other’s peace talks. Thoughts?

Wednesday Morning News: Spotlight on Burma

The big news this morning is the on-going humanitarian disaster in Burma, a.k.a. Myanmar, following the cyclone that hit the country on Saturday—and a second cyclone could be on the way. The military junta continues to restrict access to affected areas, erecting additional roadblocks and other controls that are preventing the delivery of international aid. The president of Thailand attempted to convince the government to ease the restrictions, but the leader of the junta was adamant that the country did not need outside assistance. The military puts the death toll at 34,000, but international estimates speculation that it is as high as 100,000. So far, only 34 of 100 visa requests have been approved for foreign relief efforts, and only large-scale aid delivery has not been allowed.

The junta’s refusal to allow aid to the disaster victims is raising many questions in the international human rights and foreign policy communities regarding the “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine (R2P) and the definition of crimes against humanity. Guest columnist Robert Kaplan addresses the potential for a military humanitarian invasion, led by the U.S., in a New York Times op-ed. He argues that such an operation is militarily feasible, given that significant American forces are already in Thailand for a multinational exercise, but describes a political situation that on the one hand positions the West and China/Asia against one another, and on the other plays off of Asian political and economic insecurities over the increasingly brutal dictatorship in Burma. Kaplan also notes that, should such an invasion occur, the international community would be responsible for the aftermath—the likely fall of the junta and the hopeful installation of democracy and resolution of long-standing ethnic divisions.

The idea of a military invasion for humanitarian purposes, and all of the consequences and implications, is quite a heavy topic—one that I need to think about further. Check back soon-ish…hopefully I’ll have time for a more in-depth post.

Tuesday Night News

Darfur/Sudan: Violence continues following the weekend attack on Khartoum by the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). Already-poor humanitarian and human rights conditions are rapidly deteriorating as the government and allied militias issues reprisals against Darfuris for the attack. Today, UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon criticized both the rebel attack and the government’s response, and expressed concern about the security situation along the Chad-Sudan border. Follow the link for an Amnesty International Action Alert calling for the arrest of indicted Sudanese war criminals.

Zimbabwe: South of the Sahara, violence continues as well. Haven’t read enough? Here’s more. U.S. Ambassadors, along with diplomatic teams from several other countries, were harassed by Zimbabwe security forces after visiting victims of post-election violence in a hospital.

Burma (Myanmar): Feeling generous? Click here for a list of aid organizations accepting donations for disaster relief in Burma, and now China, following the massive earthquake. Sadly, in Burma, many of these relief efforts continue to be delayed by the military junta’s reticence to issue visas to the international workers.

News: Of Hackers and Dictators

· Somalia: “The United Nations Special Envoy to Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah has expressed his optimism and hope at the willingness of the Somali leaders to put their country and the safety of the Somali people as a top priority.” Uh…based on what? I guess you just have to say that kind of thing at the opening of peace talks.
· Uganda/DRC: African Union/Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete successfully resolved a border dispute between Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which began after the DRC moved troops 4km into Uganda following the discovery of an oil field. Nice to hear good news, for a change.
· Sudan: Human rights groups are expressing concern over the mass arrests of Darfuris following Saturday’s rebel attack on Khartoum. The government imposed a curfew on the city, and state security forces are conducting house-to-house searches for suspected rebels. For a more personal view of the on-going conflict, check out this WaPo article on a Darfuri guide/translator for international investigators and workers in Darfur.
· Zimbabwe: Hackers shut down the state-run Herald newspaper—a propaganda mouthpiece for Mugabe and the ZANU-PF. I can’t help but laugh.
· Burma (Myanmar): In typical junta-fashion, the military government continues to restrict and impede the delivery of international aid to hurricane victims. The death toll could reach as many as 100,000.

Uh-Oh...

I missed a busy weekend for Darfur and Sudan—the rebel Justice and Equality Movement launched an attack on Khartoum, marking the first time rebels reached the capital in decades. Check out the blog at the Genocide Intervention Network for updates. Sudan immediately cut diplomatic ties with Chad, which it accuses of supporting the rebel groups; Chad responded by closing its border with Sudan and suspending economic ties. The Save Darfur Coalition reports harsh reprisals against civilians in Darfur following the attack. A senior JEM commander told a BBC reporter, "There's no security in Darfur. Now there won't be any security in Khartoum for the foreseeable future."

This is obviously a quick assessment of a monumental event—again, checkout GI-Net for more details. Back to more thorough blogging tomorrow.

Late Night Zim-Post: Fodder for Insomnia

A BBC report investigates the lasting impact of the massacres in Matabeleland in the mid-1980s, carried out by Mugabe’s Fifth Brigade, an elite security force trained in North Korea. Mugabe’s attempt to deal with about 500 supporters of his main rival at the time, Joshua Nkoma, became a campaign characteristic of ethnic cleansing, in which at least 20,000 members of the Ndebele population were murdered. (Mugabe and most of his security forces are Shona.) Many of the deaths occurred in a concentration camp set up by the Fifth Brigade.

Sadly, this is but one of many examples of Mugabe’s use of violence to consolidate power.

In the Washington Post tonight: A group of ZANU-PF youths killed 11 opposition supporters.

News: Elusive Peace

• Burundi: Click here for an analysis of the country’s current political situation and the difficulties faced by efforts to initiate a peace process between the government and the main rebel group.
• Uganda: A press release from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) describes efforts to salvage the peace process in Northern Uganda, which has been continually stalled by rebel leader Joseph Kony’s determination to evade any kind of accountability for his human rights abuses.
• Iraq: The Washington Post describes the hurdles to creating a lasting peace in Iraq.
• Lebanon: The U.S.-backed government and Iran/Syrian-backed Hezbollah exchanged gunfire in the capital Beirut, escalating a political conflict that WaPo describes as “the country's worst internal crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.”
• Somalia: Though the government refutes an Amnesty International report on abuses committed against civilians, other sources say the report only scratches the surface of Somalia’s human rights disaster.
• Burma: As the number of dead or missing reaches 60,000 in the aftermath of Saturday’s cyclone, the Bush administration is stepping up its criticism of the country’s ruling military junta for delays in approving visas for international assistance teams.
• Zimbabwe: I opened up several articles to read and include in this post, but honestly, there’s nothing new to say right now. The AU, SADC, UN, etc etc are all meeting and discussing. Thabo Mbeki is reportedly involved somehow. Violence continues. Elections may be delayed up to a year. Whatever.

Tuesday Morning News

• Kenya: So far 10,000 internally-displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to their homes after fleeing post-election violence. More than 1,200 people died and 350,000 were displaced after a disputed election in December.
• Burma: The death toll from the cyclone that hit Burma on Saturday has hit 22,000, according to state media sources. Hundreds of thousands are cut off from fresh water and shelter. Yesterday, in a surprising move, First Lady Laura Bush addressed a press conference and condemned the military junta for their failure to warn the population about the approaching storm and for their “inept” response to the disaster. Mrs. Bush, who does not typically take public position on high-profile policy issues, has emerged as a leader of the campaign against the abusive military dictatorship. The devastation also led the government to postpone a constitutional referendum, intended to further consolidate the junta’s power, in the worst-hit parts of the country. The New York Times writes, “The postponement of the vote, a centerpiece of government policy, along with an appeal for foreign disaster relief assistance, were difficult concessions by an insular military junta that portrays itself as all-powerful and self-sufficient.”
• China/Tibet: Read about the plight of a woman trying to publicize the plight of Tibetans in the face of Chinese censorship.
• Zimbabwe: The MDC reports that 4 more of its supporters were killed by ZANU militants. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is set to hold talks with the African Union and the Southern Africa Development Community regarding an international role in Zimbabwe’s potential upcoming runoff election. The AU will also address the issue itself, after the newly-appointed chairman visited Zim and South Africa over the weekend. No date for the runoff has been set, though Mugabe and ZANU-PF already started their campaign.

The Manic Monday News Brief

• Somalia: Soldiers in Mogadishu killed 2 after opening fire on a crowd (according to witnesses) rioting against the rapidly increasing cost of basic food items—a problem created by, among other things, the increasing cost of fuel and increasing demand by India and China. In addition to creating conditions for potential widespread famine, the skyrocketing cost of food is adding fuel to the fire of existing conflicts across the developing world. In Somalia, hyperinflation of the currency, attributed to counterfeiting and the extended absence of a functioning central government, is also contributing to the crisis.
• Kosovo/Albania: Human Rights Watch compiled additional documentation to support allegations that an estimated 400 Serbs were abducted and transferred from Kosovo to Albania after the war. Some evidence suggests that the abductions may have been part of an organ trafficking ring.
• Uganda: The leadership of the Lord’s Resistance Army is reportedly growing tired of commander Joseph Kony’s waffling over the peace process, and have told him either to sign or gather forces for a coup. I’d be careful, if I were one of these officers—the last time people expressed internal dissent, Kony had them all killed.
• Rwanda: The Rwandan government accused the DRC of not complying with an agreement to begin disarming the FDLR militia. The FDLR—comprised largely of Rwandan militants responsible for the 1994 genocide, many of whom have expressed their desire to return to Rwanda and renew their campaign of ethnic cleansing—recently resumed attacks on Congolese civilians.
• Last, but certainly not least—Zimbabwe: Teachers are threatening to strike in protest of assaults at the hands of government and ZANU-PF militants. Many teachers worked as polling officers during the disputed March 29 elections, had have been targets for violence ever since. The East African Law Society and the Law Society of the South Africa Development Community (SADC) are preparing to pursue legal action through the ICC against China for armament deals with Zimbabwe. The Chairman of the ZEC accused the MDC of “playing games” with the vote verification process. (Pot, meet Kettle.) Some analysts say that even if Mugabe is able to pull of a run-off victory, he will be severely weakened in his sixth term in office and his rule will be decidedly different. That may be so, but it’s hard to find solace in such an idea when you consider the tactics he is likely to use to continue is grip on the country…

Independence, Impartiality, Transparency...did I mention it's Opposite Day?

What’d I tell you—another article says the MDC has not yet decided whether or not it will participate in a runoff. I’m going to stop writing about this topic until I have an official statement from Morgan Tsvangirai.

But in even more ridiculous news…the government says that a runoff election may be delayed up to a year! The Zimbabwe constitution mandates that a runoff occur within three weeks of the original election—clearly that ship has sailed—but grants the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission the power to extend that period. And who’s on the ZEC? Mugabe’s political appointees. Using the ZEC to extend your hold on power—I must hand it to you, Bobby Mugabe, you are one crafty old bastard.

Need a laugh? Check out the ZEC’s website. “Independence, Impartiality, Transparency,” my ass.

Sunday Zim-date and Other News, for your reading (dis)pleasure

The Zimbabwe Standard reports that the MDC decided to reject the runoff election, calling instead of Mugabe to concede defeat. However, every time I open Google Reader there’s a contradictory headline about that, so take this one with a grain of salt. Or a huge heaping pile of salt. Another headline for the saltlick: The Cape Argus—which, if I remember correctly from my time in South Africa, is a bit like the New York Post of Cape Town—sets the casualty figures in Zimbabwe at 7,000. The paper is unclear about its source for this figure.

The Zimbabwe Standard also ran an op-ed on Sunday by Simba Makoni—an opposition candidate in the March 29 presidential elections who failed to win much support—arguing that a Government of National Unity (GNU) is the country’s only option. Though Makoni is right in his assessment of the deep divisions in Zimababwe’s political class, I have a hard time envisioning an effective GNU in the country. Mugabe and ZANU-PF have too long a history of violence and corruption—a well-documented keep-power-at-all-costs ideology—and I, for one, have little to no faith that they can be negotiated into any kind of power sharing agreement. Or if they are, that they will abide by its provision. Maybe I’m wrong, but I tend to take a learn-from-history approach to these things. (Read Martin Meredith’s Mugabe: Power, Plunder, and the Struggle for Zimbabwe, and you’ll see what I mean.) Makoni’s argument is not disinterested—he personally could have much to gain by a GNU, as the SADC and the U.S. earlier this week proposed a GNU in which Makoni would be a key member—a proposition promptly rejected by the MDC.

In other Sunday news: Nicholas Kristof opines on Guantanamo Bay in his Sunday column. Rwandans are anxiously awaiting the trial of a former high-ranking civil servant for charges of genocide—it is set to begin tomorrow at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda in Arusha, Tanzania. The government of Malaysia proposed restrictions on the travel of unaccompanied women. The leader of Nepal’s Maoist party says their recent election victory is an indication of a “global resurgence of communism.” (Dear God, let’s hope not.) And finally, representatives of the Dalai Lama began talks with China to address human rights and other issues in Tibet.

Saturday News

• Rwanda and Germany: A guest post on Nicholas Kristof’s blog describes how Rwanda and Germany are working together to address genocide in the 21^st century.
• Sri Lanka: An Amnesty International report describes human rights abuses against journalists, committed by both sides—the Tamil Tigers and the government—in the country’s ongoing civil war.
• Senegal: Bus meets landmine—one killed, 20 injured. The landmine is believed to have been planted by a rebel group seeking independence for the Casamance region, in violation of a 2004 peace accord, and is on the latest of a series of landmine explosions along the same road. Landmines are dirty, dirty business.
• Zimbabwe: Human Rights Watch released a statement calling the upcoming runoff elections in Zimababwe a “tragic joke” due to the prevailing climate of violence and intimidation towards opposition supporters. U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey also cast doubt on the possibility of a fair election. Conflicting reports indicate uncertainty over the participation of the opposition MDC party in the runoff—the BBC writes that a meeting ended without resolution on the matter. Speaking at a press conference, The U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe, James McGee, said that the embassy has document over 500 cases of violence since the March 29 elections, only one of which was carried out by an MDC supporter. A UN report states that teachers and schools are being targeted by government and ZANU-PF forces.

Friday News: Where do you hide $5 billion?

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission officially announced on Friday that MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai received 47.9% of the vote in the presidential election to Bobby Mugabe’s 43.2%—necessitating a runoff between the two. The MDC continues to argue that this tally is inaccurate, that Tsvangirai received a clear majority and a runoff is thus unnecessary. Despite previous remarks to the contrary, the Zimbabwe Independent reports that Tsvangirai will participate in the run-off—but the BBC is still reporting that he will not, so who knows? The ZEC has not yet set a date for the vote.

South African ANC President Jacob Zuma told a May Day rally that his party will not let “old liberation ties” deter them from criticizing Mugabe’s and ZANU-PF’s human rights abuses. It remains to be seen if the ANC will not let “old liberation ties” deter them from actually doing something to stop the abuses.

Actions speak louder than words, comrades.

The chief prosecutor in Charles Taylor’s trial at the International Criminal Court says that former Liberian president/warlord kept as much as $5 billion in U.S. banks during his presidency.

Former ‘Lost Boy’—a title given to child refugees separated from their families during Sudan’s civil war, many of whom were resettled in the U.S.—Valentino Achak Deng has returned to his country to help with reconstruction efforts. Check out a Q&A about his experience as a refugee and his current projects.

The last-known survivor of a group of German army officers who tried to assassinate Adolf Hitler with a briefcase bomb in 1944 died today at the age of 90. Philipp von Boeselager escaped execution—the fate of most of his associates. Kudos to you, Mr. von Boeselager, for a valiant effort to resist.

Insomnia + Google Reader = Decreased Life Expectancy

Who has the most tedious-yet-incredibly-important job in the world right now? Everyone involved in the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s presidential election verification process, that’s who. Working with representatives from all involved parties, the ZEC began the painstaking process of comparing disputed election results. “‘Where we don't agree, we will pull out every relevant document to ensure we have the same figures,’ ZEC chairman George Chiweshe said beforehand. ‘At some stage, we have to agree.’" If only that were true. Though none of the participants commented on Thursday’s meeting, a BBC correspondent is “almost certain” that a dispute is already underway.

Have fun with that.

Meanwhile, reports of state-sponsored violence and pillaging keep coming in. The MDC claims 20 of its supporters were killed by ZANU-PF militants, and a ZANU-PF MP reportedly led a group of 200 party loyals in an attack on a farm that displaced 60 families.

The U.S. Senate passed a resolution sponsored by Senator Kerry which, after a long list of “whereases,” calls on Zimbabwe to immediately release the election results, condemns the post-election violence, and recommends U.S. and international sanctions against Zimbabwe. Now, this could either be the beginning of official U.S. action against Zimbabwe, or it could be a bunch of senators try to appear like they’re thinking of doing something to uphold human rights and democracy. Thoughts?

I love this article from The Guardian—and will let it speak for itself.

In other news: The U.S. and Belarus engage in a game of tit-for-tat.

News, of the non-Zim variety

• Somalia: A U.S. air raid early Thursday morning is believed to have killed a leader of the country’s Islamist insurgency, but this has not yet been officially confirmed. A Somali media source reports 15 other deaths as a result of the missile strike.
• Rwanda: In an odd about-face, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) accused Human Rights Watch—which has supplied the court with witness testimony for 14 years—of lacking credibility.
• South Africa: ANC President Jacob Zuma urges South Africans to end xenophobia and ill-treatment of foreigners. Refugees are subject to frequent violent attacks by South Africans who resent the competition for jobs and resources.
• China: Actress/Activist Mia Farrow is in Hong Kong to protest the Beijing Olympics as the torch is scheduled to pass through the territory. She assured Chinese officials that she does not intend to disrupt the relay, but will speak against China’s relationship with Sudan at a press conference.

Thursday Zim-date: Still Waiting

Representatives for Zim’s presidential candidates meet with the ZEC today to begin the verification process for the presidential election, though unnamed senior officials said that MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai garnered 47% of the vote to Mugabe’s 43%. If this is true—which the MDC refutes—a runoff will be necessary, as a candidate is constitutionally required to receive over 50% of the vote to be declared the winner.

The Guardian (UK) posted a photo gallery of injuries inflicted on MDC supporters by government forces and other ZANU-PF supporters. Drink your coffee before looking at this, folks—don’t make the same mistake I did.

The International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) reports that the rejected Chinese ship, with Zim-bound weapons cargo, is still anchored off the coast of Angola, supposedly to refuel before returning to China. The leader of the ITF affiliate in Angola says that his members will refuse to unload any cargo bound for Zimbabwe.

Say what?

Is it possible that the delay in releasing the results of Zim's presidential election is not due to Mugabe’s desperate desire to remain in power, but is rather a tactic by top military commanders to buy time to negotiate themselves out of responsibility for decades of human rights abuses? Veeeeery interesting.

And in totally unrelated news…sunken treasure!